2026 Is Shaping Up To Be The Year of the Exit
If we had to summarize the business climate of the last two years in one word, it would be hesitation.
Business owners were in a defensive crouch. They were navigating a minefield of high interest rates, political uncertainty, and conflicting economic signals. Even businesses that were performing well were held back by their owners’ mindset. The prevailing wisdom was, “wait and see.”
But as we close the books on 2025 and look toward 2026, the atmosphere has shifted dramatically. The hesitation is gone. In the second half of 2025, we witnessed a massive surge in M&A activity. It wasn’t just a blip; it was a release of pent-up energy. Record-breaking transaction values and a flood of new buyers entered the market.
We are no longer speculating about a recovery—we are in the middle of one.
At Curtis Wiltse, we’ve spent the last few weeks analyzing the data, talking to our network of private equity partners, and reflecting on the deals we closed in Q4. What we see is a unique convergence of factors that is creating one of the most favorable seller’s markets in a decade.
Here is what we learned this year, and exactly what we expect for 2026.
The Rearview Mirror (What We Learned in 2025)
To understand where we are going, we have to understand what just happened. The story of 2025 was a story of two halves.The first half of the year was quiet. Rates were still biting, and uncertainty was high. But the second half told a completely different story.
Lesson 1: Clarity Returns
The most valuable commodity in M&A is certainty. When business owners and buyers feel uncertain, they freeze. In late 2025, clarity returned to the market. Whether you agree with the political landscape or not, the market hates a vacuum, and as soon as the future became clearer, the checkbooks opened.
We saw this immediately in our own deal flow. We closed multiple transactions in Q4—from Utah to Florida—because buyers finally felt confident enough to underwrite the next five years of growth.
Lesson 2: The Underserved Middle
We confirmed something we’ve suspected: the $1 million to $20 million market is vastly underserved. These are businesses that are too big for “Main Street” brokers (who sell coffee shops and laundromats) but often fall just below the radar of the massive Wall Street investment banks. These owners are sitting on incredible assets—businesses with $1M to $3M in profit—but they have no one to guide them.
In 2025, we saw a flood of inquiries from this specific segment. These owners are realizing that they don’t just need a buyer; they need a sophisticated exit strategy that maximizes their value and protects their wealth from taxes.
Lesson 3: The Flight to Quality
While the market is heating up, buyers are not writing blank checks for everyone. We saw a distinct bifurcation in the market.
- The “A” Assets: Businesses with clean books, over $1M in EBITDA, and low owner dependency saw bidding wars. We had buyers lining up for these deals.
- The “B” Assets: Businesses with messy financials or heavy owner involvement sat on the market.
The lesson is clear: The money is there, but the bar for quality has been raised.
Part 2: The 2026 Forecast (The 4 Forces Driving the Market)
As we look at the data for 2026, we see four specific forces that are going to drive M&A volume to record levels. If you are a business owner thinking about an exit, these are the winds at your back.
Force #1: The Private Equity Dry Powder Crisis
This is the single biggest driver of the 2026 market.
Private Equity (PE) firms operate on strict 5-year cycles. They raise a fund, they deploy (spend) that money, and then they sell the businesses to return capital to investors.
- The Context: Many PE firms raised massive funds in 2020 and 2021.
- The Problem: Because of the uncertainty in 2023 and 2024, they didn’t spend that money. They sat on it.
- The Reality: They must spend that money before their cycle ends, or they have to give it back to investors (which means they don’t get paid their fees).
We are entering 2026 with a capital overhang. There are billions of dollars on the sidelines that must find a home. These funds are aggressively looking for stable, cash-flowing businesses in the $2M – $20M range to acquire. They are under pressure to deploy, which puts sellers in the driver’s seat.
Force #2: The Return of the Individual Buyer (SBA)
For the last two years, high interest rates made it very difficult for individual buyers (the corporate executive wanting to buy a business) to make the math work. The debt service was just too high.
As rates have begun to stabilize and soften, we are seeing this buyer pool roar back to life. We are talking to 60-year-old executives who are exiting their corporate careers with a lifetime of savings and 40-year-olds who are tired of the rat race. They have cash, they have equity in their homes, and now that SBA lending is becoming more accessible again, they are entering the market in droves.
This is critical because these buyers often pay a premium for legacy businesses—companies where they can step in and be the CEO.
Force #3: Strategic Expansion (The “Land Grab”)
We are seeing aggressive movement from Strategic Buyers—large companies looking to expand geographically. In 2025, we represented companies in Illinois, Texas, Colorado and Florida, not just Utah. Why? Because strategic buyers are looking for beachheads in new territories. A roofing company in Texas wants to buy a foothold in Florida. A mining distributor in the Midwest wants a presence in the Rockies.
In 2026, we expect this trend to accelerate. Companies are done playing defense; they are playing offense. They are looking to acquire established operations rather than building from scratch.
Force #4: The Crowded Trade Warning
This is the one cautionary note in our forecast. Because the market conditions are so good, we expect a lot of baby boomer owners to finally bring their businesses to market in 2026.
Right now, in early 2026, inventory is still relatively tight. Demand exceeds supply. But as the year goes on, we expect the market to get more crowded. If 10 roofing businesses in your city all go up for sale in October, the supply/demand curve shifts.
Our Advice: The sellers who move early in 2026 will benefit from the high demand and low inventory. Those who wait until Q4 may find themselves fighting for attention in a crowded marketplace.
The Curtis Wiltse Vision for 2026
So, what does this mean for us? We are evolving our firm to meet the demands of this new market. We have spent the last year building the infrastructure to handle this surge, and we have a clear vision for how we will serve business owners in the new year.
1. Expanding Our National Footprint
In Q4 of 2025 alone, we successfully closed multiple transactions across the country.
In 2026, we are leaning into this. We are actively working with sellers in Utah, Idaho, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, and other key markets. Our “CEO + PhD” model—combining my operational deal-making with my partner Remington’s financial structuring—is resonating with owners regardless of their zip code. Whether you are in Salt Lake City or Sarasota, the principles of maximum value are the same.
2. Value Creation + Wealth Preservation
We realized in 2025 that helping you sell for a high price is only half the job.
It doesn’t matter if we get you an extra $2 million at the closing table if you write a check for that same $2 million to the IRS.
In 2026, we are doubling down on our partnerships with top-tier wealth advisors and tax strategists. We are becoming experts not just in making the deal, but in keeping the proceeds. We are educating our clients on advanced deal structures—like charitable trusts, installment sales, and 1031 exchanges—that can drastically reduce capital gains tax.
Our goal is to be the firm that cares about your “Net Proceeds,” not just your “Gross Sales Price.”
3. Launching The Business Broker Expert YouTube Channel for business owners.
We believe that an educated seller is our best client. The more you understand the process, the better the outcome. That is why we are thrilled to announce the launch of our new YouTube channel: The Business Broker Expert.
This will be a library of deep-dive content designed for the owner who is serious about selling. We are taking the conversations we have in private boardrooms—about valuations, due diligence traps, and negotiation secrets—and making them public.
We have already filmed our first episodes (look for them in January!), and we are committed to building the single best educational resource for business owners in the country.
Your 2026 Action Plan
If you are reading this and thinking, “Maybe 2026 is my year,” here is our advice to you.
Don’t Wait for Perfect. We spoke to many owners in 2024 who said, “I’ll wait until interest rates drop another point,” or “I’ll wait until the election is over.” While they waited, they missed opportunities. The market is favorable right now. There is money on the sidelines right now.
Focus on the Underserved Middle. If your business has between $1M and $20M in revenue, you are in the sweet spot. You are the “Goldilocks” asset that everyone wants—too big for the Main Street buyers to mess up, but small enough for Private Equity to double or triple in size. Recognize your value.
Get Your House in Order. If you want to catch this wave, you need to be ready. The buyers are sophisticated. They want clean books. They want proof of income. If you spend Q1 cleaning up your financials, you can be on the market by Q2 and closed by Q3.
The Final Word
2025 was a year of resilience. It proved that good businesses can survive anything. 2026 is going to be a year of reward. The capital is there. The buyers are there. The certainty is back. The only variable left in the equation is you.
If you are ready to explore what an exit looks like in this new market, let’s have a conversation. We aren’t just predicting a great year; we are ready to build one with you. Here’s a prosperous 2026. — Dean Wiltse & Remington Curtis